Indo-US relations in the present geostrategic context

The recent state visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to America and the reception bestowed on him by the Joe Biden administration are unprecedented. The joint press statement containing 58 paragraphs released at the conclusion of the state visit comprehensively sums up the depth and breadth of the Indo-US bilateral relationship in the context of the present geostrategic realities. The joint press statement referring to the all-pervasive dimensions of this relationship states that it is a relationship “that spans the seas to the stars.” If the agreements signed between the two countries during this visit are to be seen in their proper perspective, then the relationship literally spans not only from the seas to the stars but also into the field of new technologies. One of the historic agreements signed during this visit is the coproduction of General Electric (GE) Aerospace’s F414 jet engines in India in collaboration with HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), and this most advanced fighter jet engine is to be fitted in the Tejas MK2 LCA (Light Combat Aircraft). The other noteworthy defence deal is the purchase of 31 high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) Predator drones, the MQ-9B. Out of the 31, the Navy will get 15 SeaGuardian drones, while the Army and the Indian Air Force will get eight each of the land version, SkyGuardian. In another path-breaking deal, America’s Micron Technology will invest $800 million towards a $2.75 billion semiconductor assembly and test facility in India, which will make it a hub of semi-conductor manufacturing. There will be cooperation between the two countries in keeping the Indo-Pacific open and cooperation between ISRO and NASA in space programmes. All these defence and space cooperation deals would definitely take Indo-US relations to new heights that would further consolidate in the decades to come. However, some three decades ago, it would have been hard to imagine that India, being a pioneer of the Non-Aligned Movement with a clear tilt towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War, could come this close to the USA. In international relations, no country remains a friend or foe of another country forever. History is replete with instances of sworn enemies turning allies and allies turning hostile to each other with changing geostrategic and geopolitical compulsions. In 1815, Napoleon’s France and George III’s England were sworn enemies, and their animosity culminated in the defeat of Napoleon in the Battle of Waterloo. But in a changed geopolitical situation during World Wars I and II, the two countries became allies fighting the common enemy, Germany. More recently, old enemies Russia and China have perhaps enjoyed the warmest relations in decades. Pakistan, the country allying with America, waged a proxy war against the erstwhile Soviet Union in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. But it is now striving hard to get closer to the same enemy, Russia. If one studies Indo-US relations from a historical perspective, not very pleasant events come to mind. The humiliating PL 480 (also known as Food for Peace) under which India in the 1960s received wheat as relief under the CARE (Cooperative American Relief Everywhere) programme to feed its starving millions was subject to the condition that it would support America in every international forum. Thanks to the Green Revolution of the 1970s, India is no longer dependent on American relief to feed its poor population. Then comes the critical period of 1971, when American President Richard Nixon and his Foreign Secretary Henry Kissinger firmly stood with Pakistan and its military ruler Yahya Khan during the Bangladesh Liberation War and even sent the powerful aircraft carrier the 7th Fleet to the Bay of Bengal to intimidate India. In his first term as President, Bill Clinton (1993–97) did not spare any international platform to raise the issue of Jammu and Kashmir and accused India of human rights violations there. He and his administration overlooked Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism in India despite India’s desperate appeals to declare Pakistan a terrorist state. When India was suffering immense bloodshed as a victim of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, Clinton went to the extent of equating the situation in Jammu and Kashmir with that of then-civil war-infested Kosovo in the Balkans. After 9/11, America got closer to Pakistan, declared it a special ally in the so-called war against terror, and pampered the then-military dictator Parvez Musharaff by raining dollars on him. However, the Americans understood what it meant to lose people to terrorism only after 9/11 happened and when their own citizens fell victim to it. They empathised with India, as in Kashmir, Islamic terrorism was at its peak at that time. The only positive in the history of Indo-US relations until the late twentieth century was that during the 1962 Indo-China War, then-American President John F. Kennedy offered military help to Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to stop Communist China. But before any military help from America could reach India, the Indian military was soundly thrashed. During the second term of Bill Clinton (1997–2001), he was a much-mellowed man with regard to India. During the Kargil Conflict in July 1999, America, as in the past, did not tilt towards Pakistan. In 1998, when India tested the nuclear bomb, America imposed sanctions. But it was soon realised that the sanctions were self-defeating in nature, and in six months’ time, these sanctions were lifted. The next step that hugely took Indo-US relations to the next level was the August 2008 Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal in the first term of the Manmohan Singh government, which brought about a paradigm shift in the American attitude towards India. India has been on a diplomatic trapeze by balancing between developing closer ties with the American block by being in the Quad and, on the other hand, buying Russian military hardware and, more importantly, oil after the Western block imposed sanctions on its oil sale. America has been showing restraint by not imposing any sanctions on India. The US has applied CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) to Turkey and China for purchasing the Russian S-400 missile system but exempted India. India has been buying Russian oil at a discounted price, and America has so far preferred to look the other way. But why is America going the extra mile to be friendly with India? The US’s strategic planning in this regard is clear. In the present geostrategic scenario, the Russia-Ukraine war has thrown open new strategic partners. China is now Russia’s most reliable ally. Pakistan, being in the pocket of China, is automatically the third country in the new axis of Russia, China, and Pakistan. Waning American influence in the Middle East and China’s growing stature there have opened a new diplomatic front for the US. For India too, the present geostrategic situation forces it to reposition its strategic interests and re-evaluate its national interests vis-à-vis its relations with an ever-weakening Russia and a belligerent China. With the growing friendship between Russia and China in the context of western sanctions on Russia, India cannot remain a mute spectator to these new emerging geostrategic challenges in its neighbourhood. The present realignment of relations with India has three broad objectives for the US: first, the US wants India to stand up to China by being its ally in Asia; second, the US wants to wean India away from depending on Russian military hardware; and third, the US would like India to remain with it as an ally in a bipolar world to bring about stability in the region. India is not comfortable joining any one camp against another. To say that the present Indo-US relationship is China-centric would be a gross misjudgement. Even before the rise of an expansionist China, India and America were friends as two democracies believing in diversity, liberalism, and equal rights for citizens. There is close cooperation between America and India in many other fields, like culture, education, and technology. Every year, thousands of Indian students go to America for higher studies. Almost all of the leading tech companies in America are headed by Indian CEOs. Indians are by and large culturally influenced by America, and most importantly, the Indian diaspora substantially contributes to the development of America. The Chinese challenge has just added one more dimension to an existing multi-dimensional relationship. The new collaboration between India and America in the fields of semiconductors, space technology, the manufacturing of fighter jet engines, the pharmaceutical supply chain, artificial intelligence (AI), mineral security partnerships, and many other fields will pave the way for bilateral benefits for both countries in the decades to come.